On January 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest forecast for this season's citrus production. Total Florida citrus production this season is only 44.5 million cases, down 16 percent from the previous season and down 1.5 million cases from the December forecast.

According to the forecast, the production of Valencia oranges is expected to fall to 27 million boxes, down 1 million boxes from the previous forecast, and the fruit size is small. Production of other oranges (excluding navels) was 17.5 million cases, down 500,000 cases from the previous forecast, and an overall sharp drop of 39%. The fruit size is also on the small side, with the actual number of oranges in a 90-pound carton reaching 326. The production forecast for navel oranges remains unchanged at 450,000 cases.

The grapefruit production forecast is unchanged from last year and is expected to reach 4.1 million boxes. Among them, 3.3 million cases of red-meat grapefruit and 800,000 cases of white-meat grapefruit. Fruit size will be average, with white-fleshed grapefruit slightly larger than expected. Tangerine production is expected to fall to 800,000 cases, down 100,000 cases from the previous forecast and about 10% less than the 890,000 cases in the previous season.